How the West Lost the Automotive Industry: Lessons from the Market Shift

Revolutionizing Electric Vehicle Sales: EU Fleets Law Could Secure 57% of Carmakers’ Needs

Update How New EU Laws Could Revolutionize Electric Vehicle Sales The introduction of a new EU law designed to electrify the vehicle fleets of large companies presents an exciting opportunity to shift the electric vehicle (EV) landscape. According to research from Transport & Environment (T&E), this law could secure up to 57% of the EV sales necessary for car manufacturers to reach their CO2 targets by 2030. However, achieving this potential hinges on lawmakers substantially increasing the proposed electrification targets. Current Targets vs. Ambitious Goals The European Commission’s current proposal sets a target of only 45% for member states to electrify new cars registered under large companies—an insufficient figure to meet the growing demand for EVs. Analysis indicates that if the fleet electrification target is raised to 69%—and plug-in hybrids are excluded—carmakers could see substantial gains. For instance, companies like BMW could capture 72% of new EV sales, Volkswagen 61%, and Volvo 59%. The Need for Leadership in the EV Market T&E emphasizes that without an increase in targets, large companies will not be motivated to lead the EV transition, resulting in a business-as-usual scenario. In just six EU member states, large companies would theoretically be required to electrify faster than the overall market. Otherwise, in 21 other member states, they would either lag behind or match broader EV uptake levels. “Designing a fleets law that doesn’t require large companies to lead is like building a house that no one will ever live in,” says Sofie Grande y Rodriguez, Clean Fleets Manager at T&E. Tax Reforms as a Catalyst for Change A noteworthy case study comes from Belgium, where significant tax reforms were instituted in 2021. By phasing out write-offs for internal combustion engines and plug-in hybrids, the country saw corporate EV registrations soar to 54% by 2025. In stark contrast, Germany, which has not implemented similar reforms, saw only 19% of its corporate vehicle market transition to electric. The Impact on Local Manufacturing Increasing the EV target has further implications for local economies and manufacturing. Recent data shows that 74% of new corporate EVs registered in the EU in 2025 were produced within Europe, and this trend is projected to rise if only EU-made vehicles qualify for financial incentives. Under a 69% EV-only fleet target, European manufacturers could potentially sell an additional 1.9 million EVs by 2030. Otherwise, the lower 45% target would limit this to just 1.2 million, cooling the exuberant production potential of companies like Volkswagen. Capitalizing on a Growing Market As large corporations adapt to these changing laws, the move towards electrification not only supports OEMs but drives a larger workforce as well. The introduction of stronger fleet laws could become a pivotal turning point for European car manufacturers, morphing regulations into a powerful demand driver for the eco-friendly car industry. More ambitious fleet targets will not only bolster manufacturing jobs but align with wider EU sustainability goals, potentially transforming the EU into a leader in electric mobility. Therefore, it becomes imperative for lawmakers to view these targets as a strategic imperative rather than mere numbers. Conclusion: The Path Forward for EV Legislation In conclusion, to harness the full potential of the EU fleets law, decisive action is required. Companies and policymakers need to collaborate to ensure that the targets set not only encourage but mandate the leadership of large enterprises in the EV revolution. As the stakes grow higher, it’s time for stakeholders to commit to transforming the automotive industry for a sustainable future.